Current flooding is blamed on unprecedented monsoon rain. The rainfall anomaly map published by NASA shows unusually intense monsoon rains attributed to La Nina. On 21 June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department cautioned that urban and flash flooding could occur from July to September in the north parts of the country. The same department recorded above-average rainfall in the months of July and August 2010, and monitored the flood wave progression. Some of the discharge levels recorded are comparable to those seen during the floods of 1988, 1995, and 1997.
An article in the New Scientist attributed the cause of the exceptional rainfall to "freezing" of the jet stream, a phenomenon that reportedly also caused an unprecedented heat wave and wildfires in Russia as well as the 2007 United Kingdom Floods.
Flooding and impact
Monsoon rains were forecast to continue into early August and were described as the worst in this area in the last 80 years. The Pakistan Meteorological Department said that over 200 mm (7.88 inches) of rain fell over a 24-hour period over a number of places of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab and more was expected. A record-breaking 274 mm (10.7 inches) rain fell in Peshawar during 24 hours, previously 187 mm (7.36 inches) of rain was recorded in April 2009. So far 500,000 or more people have been displaced from their homes. On 30 July, Manuel Bessler, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, stated that 36 districts were involved, and 950,000 people were affected, although within a day, reports increased that number to as high as a million, and by mid-August to nearly 20 million affected. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial minister of information, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, said "the infrastructure of this province was already destroyed by terrorism. Whatever was left was finished off by these floods."He also called the floods "the worst calamity in our history."Four million Pakistanis were left with food shortages.
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| Satellite images of the upper Indus River valley comparing water-levels on 1 August 2009 (top) and 31 July 2010 (bottom) |
Officials have warned that the death toll could rise, as many towns and villages are not accessible, and communications have been disrupted. In some areas, the water level was 5.5 m (18 ft) high and residents were seen on roof-tops waiting for aid to arrive. At least 1,588 people have been injured, 222,600 houses and 4,600 villages have been damaged or destroyed. The Karakoram Highway, which connects Pakistan with China, was closed after a bridge was destroyed. The ongoing devastating floods in Pakistan will have a severe impact on an already vulnerable population, says the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). In addition to all the other damages the floods have caused, floodwater have destroyed much of the health care infrastructure in the worst-affected areas, leaving inhabitants especially vulnerable to water-borne disease. In Sindh, the Indus River burst its banks near Sukkur on 8 August, submerging the village of Mor Khan Jatoi. There is also an absence of law and order, mainly in Sindh. Looters have been taking advantage of the floods by ransacking abandoned homes using boats.
Affected areas as of August 26, 2010
In early August, the heaviest flooding moved southward along the Indus River from severely-affected northern regions toward western Punjab, where at least 1,400,000 acres (570,000 ha) of cropland was destroyed, and the southern province of Sindh. The crops affected were cotton, sugarcane, rice, pulses, tobacco and animal fodder. Floodwaters and rain destroyed 700,000 acres (3,000 km2) of cotton, 200,000 acres (800 km2) acres each of rice and cane, 500,000 tonnes of wheat and 300,000 acres (1,000 km2) of animal fodder. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association, the floods destroyed 2 million bales of cotton, which led to an increase in futures of the commodity in international market. 170,000 citizens (or 70% of the population) of the historic Sindh town of Thatta fled advancing flood waters on 27 August 2010. Pakistani authorities predicted that additional rainfall was expected to trigger two further waves of flooding in the mid-August, inundating more land and swallowing more villages. One of these new flood surges was sweeping down from mountainous areas in the north as of August 11, and was expected to hit highly populated areas in the coming days, while the second wave was being formed in the mountains.
Heavy rainfalls recorded during the wet spell of July 2010
Heavy rainfalls of more than 200 millimetres (7.9 in) recorded during the four day wet spell of July 27 to July 30, 2010 in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab based on data from the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
* Indicates new record.
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